Week 8: Sharp Sheet — Confidence Ranks & Parlay Value
Fresh week, fresh chaos. The slate’s wiped clean and the model’s recharged — fueled by Week 8 simulations, market swings, and a few late-night adjustments that definitely weren’t made after two cups of coffee. Below is the board, ranked by confidence (13 → 1), plus this week’s Underdog Pick and a 3-Leg Moneyline Parlay built purely on value and questionable self-control.
🔢 Week 8 ATS Confidence Rankings
Confidence Game ATS Pick
13 BUF @ CAR BUF –7
Model cover 92.4%; model margin +11.1 vs market –7. Bills also win 78.1% straight up.
12 WAS @ KC KC –10.5
Model cover 90.8% with a massive ~16.4-pt model-vs-market edge; KC wins 65.6% SU.
11 NYJ @ CIN CIN –7
Model cover 90.3%; CIN wins 73.5% SU and projects ~9.2 pts better than line.
10 NYG @ PHI PHI –7
Model cover 87.2%; PHI wins 68.6% SU with an expected margin ≈ 7.4.
9 SF @ HOU SF +1.5
Model cover 78.7%; SF wins 78.8% SU despite being a market dog—major mispricing.
8 CHI @ BAL CHI +6.5
Model cover 84.1%; Ravens win 65.9% SU and separate late in most sims.
7 MIN @ LAC LAC –3.5
Model cover 54.4%; efficiently priced, mild lean only.
6 CLE @ NE NE –7
Model cover 74.2%; near-even SU, but Pats beat the number roughly 3 of 4 times.
5 TB @ NO TB –4.5
Model cover 66.7%; close SU, but Bucs clear the number ~2 of 3 sims.
4 TEN @ IND IND –14
Model cover 78.1%; spread performance favors IND even though TEN has higher SU win rate.
3 MIA @ ATL ATL –7
Model cover 65.0%; rare split (MIA slight SU edge) but ATS leans firmly to ATL.
2 GB @ PIT GB –3
Model cover 69.6%; GB wins 57.9% SU and shows ~6.3 pts of ATS value.
1 DAL @ DEN DAL +3.5
Essentially 50/50 on the spread (DAL 50.3% cover); tiniest model edge to the dog.
🐺 Underdog Pick of the Week — San Francisco 49ers (ML) @ HOU
Market: HOU –1.5
Model: SF wins 78.8% straight up; covers +1.5 in 78.7% of sims
Why: Your simulations show a major disconnect—SF’s two-way efficiency advantage is substantial while the market prices them as underdogs. That combination (dog pricing + heavy SU edge) makes SF ML the standout underdog value for Week 8.
💰 3-Leg Moneyline Parlay (Value-Focused)
Designed to balance strong model edges with correlation-lite exposure:
Buffalo ML @ CAR — Bills win 78.1% SU; biggest ATS/overall edge on the slate.
Cincinnati ML vs NYJ — Bengals win 73.5% SU; model strength aligns with market.
Philadelphia ML vs NYG — Eagles win 68.6% SU; consistent separation in sims.
Why this trio? All three legs have robust model straight-up win probabilities and strong ATS support in your data, creating a value-weighted parlay without relying on long-shot variance.
Final Notes
The top tier confidence plays (BUF, KC, CIN, PHI, BAL) all show both SU and ATS alignment in the model.
SF is the week’s clearest market mispricing—dog price with heavy SU edge.
Be selective in the mid/low tiers (ATL, LAC, DAL): the model signals are thinner and more line-efficient.