Week 7 ATS Confidence Rankings

ATS Confidence Board, Underdog Pick of the Week & Value Moneyline Parlay

This week’s rankings blend model probabilities with real-world context — recent EPA swings, market corrections, and team momentum — to produce a truer reflection of confidence.

Confidence Game ATS Pick Notes

15 SEA vs HOU SEA –3.0 79.5 % cover — true margin ≈ –6.9; HOU defense regressing; SEA steady.

14 DET vs TB DET –5.5 76.4 % cover — Lions balanced home team form > Bucs injuries.

13 PHI @ MIN PHI –2.5 75.9 % cover — Eagles need to have a show of force.

12 GB @ ARI GB –6.5 74.0 % cover — Packers’ efficiency advantage across board.

11 DEN vs NYG NYG +7.0 67.4 % cover — home edge strong but Dart and Skattebo combo flips the sim.

10 KC vs LV KC –11.5 92.6 % cover — Rice is back for KC but 10+ favorites only cover 48% of time so confidence is lowered.

9 CIN vs PIT PIT -5.5 52.4 % cover — minor dog value; essentially efficient market.

8 CHI vs NO CHI –5.5 70.4 % cover — offense trending up post-bye; NO O still negative EPA.

7 SF vs ATL SF –2.5 73.2 % cover — balanced EPA; ATL offense boom-or-bust. SF injuries lower confidence.

6 NE @ TEN NE –7.0 65.6 % cover — four straight positive O-EPA weeks; TEN O flat.

5 LAC vs IND LAC –1.5 64.4 % cover — short favorite with 4-pt model edge; steady EPA profile.

4 WAS @ DAL DAL +2.5 62.0 % cover for WAS but Daniels inconsistent in return from injury.

3 CAR @ NYJ CAR –2.5 61.2 % cover — offense +0.15 EPA last 3 weeks; slight edge.

2 LA @ JAX LA –3.0 55.7 % cover — modest edge; JAX defense keeps game tight.

1 MIA @ CLE MIA +2.5 71.9 % cover — five positive O-EPA weeks; market mispricing; live dog.

🐬 Underdog Pick of the Week

Miami Dolphins (+2.5 / ML)

• Model flips the market with:

  • 74–75 % SU win probability and

  • 71.9 % cover rate.

• Miami’s balanced offense makes this both a value ATS and moneyline play.

💰 3-Leg Moneyline Parlay (“Value Build”)

Leg Team Est. SU Win Rate Rationale

1 Seahawks ML ~68.6 % Biggest efficiency gap vs market; undervalued favorite.

2 Eagles ML ~66.9 % Offensive consistency + turnover edge vs MIN.

3 49ers ML ~63.4 % Home edge + defensive EPA advantage.

Combined hit probability ≈ 29 % → fair odds ≈ +243 (3.43 decimal).
If books post shorter than +243, pass; if higher, take it.

🎯 Summary

• Anchor plays: KC –11.5, SEA –3, DET –5.5, PHI –2.5.

• Value dog: Miami +2.5 / ML.

• Mid-confidence group: DEN, NE, LAC — good parlay fillers.

• Caution zone: CAR, LA, CIN — use smaller stakes.