Week 9 NFL Pick’em – Confidence, Chaos & Climbing the Standings
Every week, I run my simulation model not just to test its accuracy — but to climb the leaderboard in my NFL pick’em league. The season’s long, the margins are thin, and the coffee is strong. This analysis breaks down every matchup against the spread (ATS), ranked by confidence, all grounded in EPA data, market adjustments, and the ever-humbling lessons of recent form.
Confidence Game ATS Pick Notes
14 CAR @ GB GB −12.5 Green Bay offense +0.13 EPA/play; CAR offense trending down, volatile.
13 MIN @ DET DET −8.5 Detroit two-way edge (357/300 yds) and +0.09 off EPA.
12 SF @ NYG SF −2.5 Giants’ D leaking (383 yds/gm); SF efficiency on both sides.
11 SEA @ WAS SEA −3.0 straight-up toss-up, SEA’s steadier D (−0.08 EPA) breaks tie.
10 JAX @ LV LV +3.0 Jacksonville struggles continue with LV trending up.
9 BAL @ MIA BAL −7.5 Ravens’ steadier EPA/late control; MIA volatile weekly profile.
8 NO @ LA LA −14.0 Rams balanced (+0.04 off / −0.07 def EPA); NO offense −0.14 EPA.
7 LAC @ TEN LAC −10.0 Chargers’ offense > TEN’s −0.14 EPA attack.
6 DEN @ HOU DEN +1.5 Denver’s recent performance increases confidence; ~50.8% cover.
5 CHI @ CIN CIN +2.5 “Wrong team favored” signal; CIN defense trending up.
4 ATL @ NE NE −5.5 Patriot’s offense improving and Atlanta one-sided.
3 ARI @ DAL DAL −2.5 Dallas struggles seem to be unending but need a win at home. Defense will prevail.
2 KC @ BUF KC −2.5 Essentially coin-flip vs line; tiny nudge ~51.4% cover.
1 IND @ PIT IND −3.0 Spread basically fair; This will be a competitive game.
Underdog Pick of the Week (Moneyline)
Bengals ML vs Bears (CHI @ CIN)
Model win prob: ~69% despite being priced like a short dog in market terms.
Why: Defensive upswing (+0.14 def EPA), offense stabilizing after early dip; “wrong team favored” signal plus strong ATS cover (CIN +2.5 ≈ 65%).
If you want an ATS tag-along: CIN +2.5 remains a high-leverage position from the board above.
3-Leg Moneyline Parlay (Value-Focused)
Packers ML (vs CAR) — Model win ~68%; steady +0.13 off EPA and better yards allowed per game.
Lions ML (vs MIN) — Model win ~66%; two-way differential (357/300) and red-zone conversion edge.
49ers ML (at NYG) — Model win ~67%; balanced EPA on both sides against a porous NYG defense.
Why this trio: Each leg has a ~66–68% model win rate and a measurable market edge from your sims, keeping juice reasonable while compounding EV. If you want to goose the payout, consider swapping one leg for JAX ML (model win ~67%) based on that strong ATS edge.