🏈 Week 6 ATS Confidence Rankings
The simulations and market adjustment models are fully aligned heading into Week 6, giving a clear sense of which spreads carry real edge and which should be avoided. Below are the ATS confidence rankings (15–1) based solely on your document’s adjusted projections and summaries.
Confidence Game ATS Pick Notes
15 CIN @ GB CIN +14 Large spread + moderate variance; Favs only cover a +10pt spread 48% of the time.
14 DEN @ NYJ DEN –7.5 Broncos cover ≈ 80 % of runs; improving defense versus Jets’ bottom-tier EPA offense.
13 BUF @ ATL BUF –4.5 Bills’ attack remains top-five EPA; Atlanta defense leaks explosives. Consistent control projected.
12 DAL @ CAR DAL –3.5 Cowboys balanced and efficient; Panthers bottom-five offense. Reliable road favorite spot.
11 PIT vs CLE PIT –4.5 Steelers steady after bye; Cleveland’s volatility limits trust. Model favors PIT by ≈ 4–6.
10 PHI @ NYG NYG +7 Philadelphia strong in the simulation but playing uninspired. Dart has NYG inspired.
9 LV vs TEN LV –4.5 Raiders hold moderate edge from superior passing EPA and Titans’ 3rd-down struggles.
8 JAX vs SEA JAX –1.5 Jaguars positive EPA and turnover margin; Seattle trending down in yardage efficiency.
7 LA vs BAL LA –7.5 Rams cover ~58 % of sims despite Ravens’ higher win rate; higher-scoring profile favors home ATS.
6 DET @ KC KC -2.5 Lions’ defensive front and pace give slight ATS value but KC playing with chip on shoulder.
5 MIA @ LAC MIA +4.5 Simulation leans LAC slightly, but Dolphins’ offense trending up; live underdog value.
4 IND vs ARI IND –6.5 Thin edge to Colts; low-scoring grind where Arizona’s steadiness keeps spread risky.
3 NE vs NO NE –3.5 Essentially line-efficient; simulations split ≈ 50/50. Marginal lean Patriots.
2 SF @ TB TB -3 Slight contrarian dog angle; Tampa’s defense and home-field cap the upside.
1 CHI @ WAS CHI +4.5 Model shows no edge (~50 %). CHI seems to be clicking right now.
🐺 Underdog Pick of the Week
Miami Dolphins +4.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers
Miami’s in-season metrics point to offensive rhythm and stronger win probability despite being +4.5. Best dog with real straight-up upside.
💰 3-Leg Moneyline Parlay (Value-Focused)
Philadelphia ML - Anchor leg; dominant efficiency edge.
Dallas ML - Balanced metrics vs Carolina’s weak offense.
Miami ML - Contrarian plus-money value with offensive momentum.