Week 5 NFL ATS Picks with some value picks.
We’ve hit Week 5, and the simulations are now blending preseason expectations with in-season adjustments. That means the model is sharper, but I still keep my balance of 80% data and 20% instincts — factoring in efficiency trends, roster health, and locker room psychology.
Below are my ATS confidence picks for all 14 games this week, plus my favorite value moneyline parlay and the underdog to circle.
📋 ATS Picks with Confidence (14 → 1)
Confidence Matchup Pick ATS Notes
14 NE @ BUF (-8.5) BUF -8.5 Bills cover in ~92% of sims. NE offense bottom-3 in efficiency.
13 TEN @ ARI (-7.5) ARI -7.5 Cardinals cover close to 80%. Titans offense stalled.
12 DET @ CIN (-10.0) DET -10 Lions cover ~79%. Balanced O & D too much for CIN.
11 MIN @ CLE (-4.5) MIN -4.5 Vikings cover ~76%. CLE turnover prone, MIN defense sharp.
10 MIA @ CAR (-1.5) MIA -1.5 Dolphins cover ~73%. Speed mismatch overwhelms CAR.
9 DAL @ NYJ (-3.0) DAL -3 Cowboys ~73% cover. Jets inconsistent and vulnerable.
8 SF @ LA (+5.5) LA -5.5 49ers ~57% cover, but SF is struggling in recent performance.
7 DEN @ PHI (-3.5) PHI -3.5 Eagles ~70% cover after adjustments. DEN can’t keep pace.
6 KC @ JAX (-3.5) KC -3.5 Chiefs ~69% cover. Mahomes gap is decisive.
5 HOU @ BAL (+2.5) HOU -2.5 Ravens cover ~71%. But with Lamar Jackson out, its a different game.
4 WAS @ LAC (+3.0) WAS +3 Commanders ~55% cover. Dog value but low conviction.
3 TB @ SEA (-3.0) SEA -3 Seahawks ~56% cover. Low-confidence lean.
2 NYG @ NO (-2.5) NYG +2.5 Saints ~56% cover. But, Dart will spark the Giants again.
1 LV @ IND (-6.5) IND -6.5 Colts ~69% cover. Raiders lack consistency.
🐶 Underdog Pick of the Week
Washington Commanders +3 @ Los Angeles Chargers
QB1 Jayden Daniels returns after missing time — Washington’s offense looks different with him under center.
Chargers’ defense still soft, especially against mobile QBs.
Lamar Jackson’s hamstring injury removes Baltimore from underdog contention, making WAS the stronger dog play.
This is the sneaky spot where the sims see ~55% cover, but health context gives it real-world pop.
💰 3-Leg Moneyline Parlay (Value Focused)
This week’s best value isn’t in piling chalk but finding where the sims disagree with the market:
HOU ML @ BAL — Ravens outright win ~60%, but Lamar Jackson injury changes the situation vastly.
MIA ML @ CAR — Dolphins win outright ~65%.
ARI ML vs TEN — Cardinals favored by sims and adjustments, strong edge.
This combo builds into juicy plus-money odds while being backed by simulation edges.
✅ Wrap-Up
The chalk plays at the top (BUF, ARI, DET, MIN) look strong, but the real betting opportunities come from teams like BAL and MIA where the market is underpricing their actual win probabilities. Week 5 offers a mix of safe favorites and live underdogs — perfect for shaping confidence picks and parlay value.