Week 4 NFL Picks: Confidence Rankings, Value Parlays, and Live Dogs
Three weeks into the season, we’re starting to see who’s for real and who’s headed for trouble. My process stays the same: lean on the simulation model (thousands of game iterations using minimax logic), then layer in real-world adjustments — offensive/defensive efficiency, injuries, roster stability, and the always underrated locker room toxicity factor.
For me, it’s still 80% data and 20% instincts. The sims narrow the board, but that last layer of context is what gives these picks real confidence.
📋 Week 4 ATS Picks with Confidence
Confidence Matchup Pick ATS Notes
16 CLE @ DET (-8.5) DET -8.5 Lions cover in ~95%; CLE’s offense bottom tier (-0.23 EPA/play).
15 CHI @ LV (-1.5) CHI -1.5 Bears cover in ~68% sims; Raiders’ D still leaky.
14 PHI @ TB (-3.5) PHI -3.5 Eagles cover ~70%; TB’s defense struggling.
13 IND @ LA (-3.5) LA -3.5 Rams cover in 76% of sims; Indy bottom in efficiency.
12 JAX @ SF (-3) SF -3 Niners cover ~72%; top-10 O & D.
11 MIN @ PIT (-2.5) MIN -2.5 Vikings ~62% cover; defense trending up.
10 WAS @ ATL (-1.5) WAS -1.5 Commanders cover in ~65%; Falcons’ offense cratered last week.
9 NO @ BUF (-16.5) BUF -16.5 Bills cover in 97.8% of sims; elite on both sides of the ball. Home teams cover spreads >10 only 48% which reduces confidence.
8 CAR @ NE (-5.5) NE -5.5 Pats cover ~69%; CAR offense bottom-5 in yards/play.
7 TEN @ HOU (+7) TEN +7 Titans undervalued; sims gave them 67% SU win prob. Division game will be close.
6 SEA @ ARI (-1.5) SEA -1.5 Seahawks ~58% cover; ARI defense declining.
5 BAL @ KC (+3) BAL +3 Ravens lean ATS (~56% cover); near 50/50 SU. Ravens hungry to win.
4 LAC @ NYG (-6.5) LAC -6.5 Chargers cover ~68%; Giants fading but should get a jolt from Dart.
3 NYJ @ DAL (+6) NYJ +6 Jets defense keeps them inside the number. Dallas needs a win but will be hindered by injury.
2 MIA @ GB (-4.5) GB -4.5 GB is rolling, MIA is struggling.
1 DEN @ CIN (+2.5) DEN +2.5 Pure coin flip; lowest conviction play.
💰 Week 4 Value Moneyline Parlay
This week’s best positive-odds combo isn’t about chalk — it’s about finding mispriced dogs.
TEN ML @ HOU → Sims gave TEN ~67% win prob despite being +7 in the market.
GB ML @ GB → Dolphins woes will keep them down. Lots of locker room turmoil.
BAL ML @ KC → True toss-up game, but if books are hanging + odds on BAL, it’s value.
Combined, this three-leg ML parlay pushes into +1000 payout territory with ~20–25% realistic hit rate. Exactly the kind of risk/reward spot the model is designed to uncover.
🐶 Underdog Pick of the Week
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Market: +7 underdogs.
Simulation: TEN wins outright ~67% of the time.
Context: Houston’s numbers are inflated from weaker competition. Tennessee’s defense and ground game can control tempo.
If you’re looking for one dog to circle in Week 4, the Titans are it.
✅ Wrap-Up
The simulations and adjustments line up behind three monster ATS favorites (BUF, DET, PHI) but the real intrigue is on the dog side. TEN, MIA, and BAL are all live underdogs with moneyline value, and stacking them together builds one of the best +EV parlays of the season so far.
The numbers provide the framework — but factoring in efficiency trends, roster health, and locker room chemistry is what keeps the picks grounded. On to Week 4.