Week 3 NFL Picks: Sim based with final “eye test”
Two weeks in, we’re starting to see which teams have staying power and which ones are struggling to find an identity. My approach hasn’t changed: lean on the simulation model (thousands of play-by-play outcomes via minimax game theory) for the baseline, then apply real-world adjustments from Week 1 and Week 2 — efficiency stats, roster health, and yes, the ever-important “locker room toxicity” factor.
For me it’s still that 80% data, 20% instincts balance that makes these picks worth trusting. Here’s how Week 3 shakes out.
📋 Week 3 ATS Picks with Confidence
Here are my ATS picks for all 16 games, ranked from most confident (16 points) to least (1 point):
Confidence Game Pick ATS Notes
16 MIA @ BUF (-12.5) BUF -12.5 Bills cover in ~92% of sims; offense + defense dominant.
15 KC @ NYG (-6.5) KC -6.5 Chiefs cover nearly 9-in-10 sims; Mahomes efficiency gap is huge.
14 GB @ CLE (-8.5) GB -8.5 Packers cover ~88%; Browns offense too inefficient.
13 NYJ @ TB (-7.0) TB -7 Bucs dominant in sims; Jets lack punch.
12 LA @ PHI (-3.5) PHI -3.5 Eagles cover ~77%; both model + eye test line up here.
11 ATL @ CAR (-5.5) ATL -5.5 Falcons cover 75% of sims; CAR offense hasn’t clicked.
10 NO @ SEA (-7.5) SEA -7.5 Seahawks cover strong despite closer SU projections.
9 DEN @ LAC (-2.5) LAC -2.5 Chargers cover ~69%; DEN inconsistent.
8 ARI @ SF (-1.5) SF -1.5 Niners ~73% cover; market line too short.
7 LV @ WAS (-3.5) WAS -3.5 Commanders cover ~73%; Raiders sloppy early. Jayden Daniels injury lowers confidence.
6 DET @ BAL (-4.5) BAL -4.5 Ravens ~61% ATS edge, but DET ML value is live.
5 CIN @ MIN (+3.0) CIN +3 Bengals win ~66% outright; dog with teeth.
4 PIT @ NE (-1.5) PIT -1.5 Light lean only; volatile matchup.
3 DAL @ CHI (+1.5) DAL -1.5 Mild Bears edge in sim, but Cowboys need a win.
2 HOU @ JAX (-0.5) JAX -0.5 Small home lean; nothing flashy.
1 IND @ TEN (+3.5) TEN +3.5 Titans live home dog and will keep it close; lowest conviction play.
🏆 Best 3-Leg ATS Parlay
The strongest model edges for Week 3:
BUF -12.5
KC -6.5
GB -8.5
All three are top conviction plays with 88%+ cover rates.
💰 Best 3-Leg Moneyline Parlay
For profit potential, I like the balance of two value dogs and one short favorite:
CIN ML @ MIN (≈66% sims win, market had them as dogs)
TEN ML vs IND (≈61% sims win, home dog value)
DET ML @ BAL (≈51% sims win, dog sprinkle)
If you want the chalkier route, stack KC + PHI + GB for safer ML value.
📊 Other Good Bets
Tampa Bay → Strongest cover vs NYJ. ATS and ML playable.
Detroit → Better value on the ML than ATS this week.
New Orleans → Model doesn’t love them, but eye test says SEA could be vulnerable.
Totals → Again, no strong discrepancies between sims and market.
✅ Wrap-Up
The Week 3 slate is top-heavy. BUF, KC, and GB stand out as elite conviction plays, with DET offering ML value as a live dog. The middle tier has some tricky spots (SEA, WAS, ATL) where the numbers lean one way but execution risk is higher.
As always, the simulations help narrow the board, but the human adjustments — watching efficiency, health, and locker room chemistry — keep these picks grounded.