Week 2 NFL Picks: Data, Adjustments, and the Eye Test

Week 1 of the NFL season gave us plenty of chaos — surprise performances, rookie jitters, and more than a few teams who already look like they need therapy sessions in the locker room. That’s why I take my simulation results and layer in real-world adjustments from the opening week.

My approach is still 80% data, 20% eye test. The data comes from a minimax game theory simulation that runs thousands of plays for each matchup. The eye test comes from me checking for roster health, coaching tendencies, and my favorite psychological factor: locker room toxicity. If a team looks fractured, I adjust their projection down regardless of how good the numbers look.

With that in mind, here’s how I’m attacking Week 2.

🔒 Against the Spread (ATS) Confidence Rankings

Here are my ATS picks for all 16 games, ranked from most confident (16 points) to least (1 point).

Confidence Game Pick ATS Notes

16 BUF vs NYJ (-6.5) BUF -6.5 91% cover, dominant Week 1 efficiency in Bill’s comeback win.

15 BAL vs CLE (-11.5) BAL -11.5 92% cover, Ravens offense clicking despite loss in BUF.

14 DET vs CHI (-5.5) DET -5.5 Lions efficient, Bears inefficient despite scoring.

13 SF @ NO (-4.5) SF -4.5 80% cover, 49ers better team by EPA.

12 DAL vs NYG (-6.0) DAL -6.0 74% cover, Cowboys strong on both sides.

11 LAC @ LV (-3.5) LAC -3.5 70% cover, Raiders looked flat.

10 LA (Rams) @ TEN (-5.5) LA -5.5 71% cover, Titans worse Week 1 efficiency.

9 MIA vs NE (-1.5) MIA -1.5 67% cover, Dolphins struggles push the confidence down.

8 GB vs WAS (-3.5) GB -3.5 64% cover, Packers efficiency edge but strong WAS team lowers confidence.

7 PIT vs SEA (-3.0) PIT -3.0 55% cover, Steelers lean.

6 TB @ HOU (+2.5) TB +2.5 65% sims, ML value too.

5 MIN vs ATL (-4.5) MIN -4.5 Model leans MIN, but ATL tougher than expected.

4 CIN vs JAX (-3.5) CIN -3.5 77% sims, but downgrade after inefficient Week 1.

3 KC vs PHI (+1.5) KC +1.5 Toss-up, slight lean to Chiefs.

2 ARI vs CAR (-6.5) ARI -6.5 79% sims, but CAR outperformed Week 1.

1 DEN @ IND (-2.5) IND +2.5 Model liked DEN, but IND looked stronger; lowest conviction.

🏆 Best 3-Leg ATS Parlay

If you want to package the strongest spread edges together, these are the plays with the highest conviction:

• BUF -6.5 vs NYJ (91% cover)

• BAL -11.5 vs CLE (92% cover)

• DET -5.5 vs CHI (84% cover)

These three stand out as not just winners, but dominant cover candidates across thousands of sims and Week 1 adjustments.

💰 Best 3-Leg Moneyline Parlay

For profit potential, the moneyline is where underdogs or short favorites can provide extra juice.

• TB ML @ HOU (65% win prob, market has them as dogs)

• MIA ML vs NE (67% win prob, short fave with value)

• KC ML vs PHI (55% win prob, plus-money edge in a coin-flip game)

This mix balances win probability and payout: Tampa is the contrarian leg, Miami provides stability, and Kansas City adds upside.

📊 Other Good Bets

• Tampa Bay → Great value both ATS (+2.5) and ML. One of the sneakiest plays of the week.

• KC ML → Only if priced plus-money, but the model gives them a slim edge.

• Totals (Over/Under) → Like Week 1, the model and the market were in sync. No strong plays here.

✅ Wrap-Up

The Week 2 board has four big conviction plays at the top — BUF, BAL, DET, SF — and a few live value dogs like Tampa Bay that could swing pools and parlays. The simulation narrows the edges, but the human layer of adjustments is what keeps me confident.

If you’re in a pick’em league like me, don’t just copy the sheet. Think about where the market is off and where human factors (locker room culture, injuries, early-season surprises) can tilt the outcome. That’s where the real edge lies.