Week 17 NFL ATS Confidence Rankings
Two weeks left in the regular season and the margins are razor thin — both on the field and in the pick ’em standings. I’m still right on the heels of first place, so every edge matters from here on out. These rankings come from my EPA-based simulation model, calibrated against the market and then cross-checked with play-by-play CSV adjustments (offensive/defensive EPA and yardage profiles by week and opponent).
The mission is simple: find the most +EV ATS sides on the board, then stack them from strongest to weakest and assign confidence points accordingly (16 down to 1) so I can squeeze every last bit of value out of the final two weeks.
Week 17 Confidence Board
Confidence Game ATS Pick Notes
16 NE @ NYJ NYJ +13.5 Rivalry game with home field advantage will keep this close
15 ARI @ CIN CIN -7.0 Simulation gives CIN ~68.6% win share and the CSV profiles show a clearly superior Bengals offense over a volatile Arizona unit.
14 DET @ MIN DET -7.0 85.7% cover probability; season-long CSV sums show Detroit with sustained offensive EPA and yardage edges, while Minnesota’s offense stays underwater most weeks.
13 JAX @ IND IND +6.5 Jaguars control the efficiency battle in the CSV but are inconsistent against a high-variance Colts team.
12 CHI @ SF SF -3.0 83.3% cover probability; simulation and CSV agree that San Francisco is the stronger team with multiple high-EPA, high-yardage weeks compared to a more erratic Chicago profile.
11 SEA @ CAR SEA -7.0 CSV data tags Seattle as consistently more efficient while Carolina’s results are volatile with many weeks of being outgained and out-efficiencied.
10 LA @ ATL LA -7.5 71.6% cover probability; model leans Rams by roughly a touchdown with CSV notes highlighting L.A.’s offensive ceiling against Atlanta’s shakier efficiency.
9 DEN @ KC KC +13.5 Despite a Kansas City injuries, this game will be closer than 10+ margin.
8 HOU @ LAC LAC -2.5 Chargers’ slightly stronger offense and steadier EPA profile outpace a Houston team that oscillates between excellent and anemic weeks.
7 DAL @ WAS DAL -7.0 Washington injuries will add to DAL’s high-output offense and CSV efficiency advantage still drive a solid ATS edge at -7.
6 NYG @ LV NYG +1.5 51.1% cover probability; essentially a coin flip straight up, with the tiniest ATS edge to the Giants off slightly better adjusted efficiency splits.
5 TB @ MIA TB -5.5 59.2% cover probability; Miami owns more straight-up wins in the sims, but the spread is inflated and CSV EPA/yardage data show Tampa hanging inside the number in most scenarios.
4 PIT @ CLE PIT -3.0 56.1% cover probability; Steelers’ offense and defense are streaky but net positive in the CSV, while Cleveland’s offense runs underwater almost all year.
3 BAL @ GB BAL +2.5 54.0% cover probability; simulation frames this as a “live dog” with a modest edge to Baltimore, though CSV season-long EPA and yardage slightly favor Green Bay, keeping this lower in confidence.
2 PHI @ BUF BUF -1.5 52.8% cover probability; a close game by both model and CSV, but Buffalo’s modest efficiency tilt and home edge justify a small-value position at a short number.
1 NO @ TEN NO -2.5 60.3% cover probability; a near-even matchup by eye, but the distribution and CSV notes tilt toward Saints wins by a field goal more often than the line implies.
Underdog Pick of the Week: Ravens +2.5 at Packers
If you scroll the board hunting for a live dog, this is the one that pops.
Pick: BAL +2.5 at GB
Cover probability: 54.0% for BAL +2.5
Model expected margin (BAL - GB) is just under +4 points, creating roughly a +6-point effective edge versus the current line when you give Baltimore the field goal cushion.
The simulation alone frames this as a classic live dog, with Baltimore winning outright more often than the market implies, even though the CSV EPA/yardage view softens the edge by showing Green Bay as the better season-long offense.
Net-net: the model still finds value grabbing the points with Baltimore, but this is a “measured” underdog — more about a steady edge than a wild upset swing.
3-Leg Moneyline Value Parlay
(Value-driven, not a lottery ticket)
For a moneyline parlay, I want teams the model already likes against the spread and that the writeups specifically call out as viable ML plays or strong favorites. Three stand out:
1) Cincinnati Bengals ML (vs ARI)
Win probability: ~68.6% in the sims.
ATS projection: CIN -7.0 with an 86.5% cover probability and a strong “decisive edge” label in the writeup.
CSV notes: superior offensive EPA and repeated 400+ yard games, while Arizona’s offense is more volatile and often below water.
This is a textbook anchor leg: favorite in every lens (sim, market, CSV).
2) San Francisco 49ers ML (vs CHI)
Win probability: ~73.5% in simulation.
ATS projection: SF -3.0 with 83.3% cover probability and a flagged market inefficiency (49ers cover in more than four out of five sims).
CSV notes: San Francisco stacks positive EPA and high-yardage outings across the season, while Chicago’s offense and defense bounce between competent and stalled.
The straight-up angle is safer than the spread, but both are supported by efficiency data.
3) Los Angeles Chargers ML (vs HOU)
Win probability: ~58.6% in the sims.
ATS projection: LAC -2.5 with 69.3% cover probability and a ~6-point ATS model edge.
CSV notes: Chargers’ offense grades out stronger on average, and their defensive efficiency plus yardage allowed profile supports them as the more stable side.
The writeup explicitly calls LAC moneyline playable at moderate juice and aligned with their modeled edge.
Why This Parlay Makes Sense
All three legs are model-favored ATS with meaningful cover edges.
Each team has a solid straight-up win probability backed by both simulations and EPA/yardage context.
This is a “power favorite” parlay: you are stacking efficient teams in strong spots rather than stringing together longshot dogs.
Treat it as a small-stake, plus-EV kicker layered on top of your individual ATS positions from the Week 17 Confidence Board.