Week 16 NFL ATS Confidence Rankings
Another week, another full 16-game slate to navigate. These rankings come from my EPA-based simulation model, calibrated against the market and then cross-checked with play-by-play CSV adjustments (offensive/defensive EPA and yardage profiles by week and opponent).
The goal: find the most +EV ATS sides on the board, then stack them from strongest to weakest and assign confidence points accordingly (16 down to 1).
Week 16 Confidence Board
Confidence Game ATS Pick Notes
16 BUF @ CLE BUF -10.0 +20.84 pt model edge with CSV EPA and yardage dominance confirming Bills as an elite smash spot laying the big number.
15 NE @ BAL BAL -3.0 Model vs market edge of 11.68 pts toward Baltimore and CSV EPA snapshots show a sustained Ravens advantage on both sides of the ball.
14 KC @ TEN KC -3.5 KC’s needs a win to save face and EPA-based CSV trends justify laying the short road number.
13 NYJ @ NO NO -4.5 Model edge swings roughly 8 pts toward the Saints side despite being expressed against NYJ, and CSV notes highlight New Orleans’ sustained edge.
12 PIT @ DET PIT +7.0 CSV-adjusted offensive and defensive don’t justify that this game will be a close matchup.
11 SF @ IND IND +6.0 EPA and yardage trends show a discrepancy with market value for SF.
10 CIN @ MIA CIN -2.5 +7.38 pt model edge with CSV performance snapshots showing Cincinnati’s balanced Off/Def profile outpacing Miami enough to clear -2.5.
9 PHI @ WAS PHI -6.5 CSV-adjusted EPA and yardage splits back the Eagles to win comfortably beyond the market’s -6.5, especially with Jayden Daniels on the sideline.
8 LA @ SEA SEA +1.5 Expect a close NFC West matchup. Home field will swing this game in favor of SEA
7 GB @ CHI CHI +1.5 While Green Bay holds the more stable offensive and defensive efficiency, Chicago has some magic plus home field.
6 JAX @ DEN DEN -3.0 Denver is on a roll and at home. With market and simulation matching, expect Broncos to cover.
5 LV @ HOU LV +14.5 While Houston showcasing strong efficiency in this market, winning by 10+ is not feasible here .
4 TB @ CAR TB -3.0 +5.48 pt edge, with CSV yardage and EPA notes depicting Tampa Bay as the stronger, more consistent unit against a volatile Panthers offense.
3 LAC @ DAL DAL -1.5 EPA-based CSV adjustments underline Dallas’ offensive ceiling and home-field tilt at a short -1.5.
2 MIN @ NYG MIN -3.0 +4.05 pt model edge, and CSV defensive EPA advantages for Minnesota support laying a field goal on the road.
1 ATL @ ARI ATL -2.5 CSV-adjusted data shows the Falcons’ offense and defense slightly outclass Arizona enough to justify -2.5.
Underdog Pick of the Week: Jaguars +3 at Broncos
If you scroll straight to the bottom of the board looking for a live dog, here it is.
Pick: SEA +1.0 vs LA
Model edge: +1.20 points toward Seattle
Cover probability: 54.7%
This is a classic “edge is small, but real” underdog spot. The market is hanging on LA, but the model and CSV adjustments suggest these teams are closer than the line implies:
Seattle’s offensive EPA profile is good enough to stay on script, even if game state tilts against them.
Defensive performance isn’t dominant, but it’s not materially worse than Seattle’s once you adjust for opponents.
Over a large simulation run, SEA covers +1 more often than not, and there are enough game scripts where they win outright that this is the kind of dog you want in your portfolio.
If you like to sprinkle moneylines on top of your ATS plays, this is the underdog I’d consider for a modest ML exposure in Week 16. The spread gives you protection in a one-score loss, but the underlying numbers say Jacksonville has a meaningful path to a straight-up upset.
3-Leg Moneyline Value Parlay
For a value-based moneyline parlay, I want to anchor it to teams the model already loves against the spread. If they’re grading out as double-digit ATS edges, their straight-up win probability should be even stronger.
3-Leg ML Parlay (Value-Driven, Not a Lottery Ticket)
Buffalo Bills ML (vs CLE)
ATS projection: BUF -10.0 with a 95.3% cover probability and a +20.84 pt model edge.
CSV notes show dominant offensive and defensive EPA plus yardage control. If the model thinks they’re this live to blow out the Browns, asking them just to win the game is the conservative way to capture that edge.
San Francisco 49ers ML (at IND)
ATS projection: SF -6.0 with a 91.1% cover probability and a +16.93 pt edge.
EPA and yardage trends show a clear class difference. The 49ers profile as the better unit on both sides of the ball, and the simulation output suggests they win this matchup comfortably across a wide range of game scripts.
Detroit Lions ML (vs PIT)
ATS projection: DET -7.0 with a 90.6% cover probability and a +16.43 pt model edge.
CSV-adjusted offense/defense splits both tilt toward Detroit. When a team is projected to cover a full touchdown at that high of a rate, using them on the moneyline in a parlay is a logical way to turn a big favorite into part of a value stack.
Why This Parlay Makes Sense
All three legs are model-favored ATS by double-digit points versus the market line.
Each game shows a 90%+ projected ATS cover rate, which implies an even higher straight-up win probability.
This is a “power favorite” parlay built on efficiency and market mispricing, not a Hail Mary string of longshot dogs.
Of course, a three-leg parlay always carries correlation risk (one odd week and it all dies), so this is best treated as a small-stake, plus-EV kicker alongside your straight ATS bets and single-game positions.