Week 18 ATS Table with Extras
Higher confidence points don’t just mean “I kinda like this side”, they’re my final week heat check as I chase down first place in the pick ’em league. If I’m going to run this thing down in Week 18, these are the hills I’m willing to die on.
Confidence Game ATS Pick Notes
16 NYJ @ BUF BUF -7.0 CSV EPA/yardage profiles show a structural mismatch favoring Buffalo on both sides of the ball.
15 CLE @ CIN CIN -7.0 CSV notes confirm a clear offensive edge for the Bengals against a sputtering Browns attack.
14 ARI @ LA LA -7.5 Summed EPA and yardage reinforcing the Rams as the superior unit on both offense and defense.
13 KC @ LV KC -5.5 CSV data highlights a sustained offensive efficiency gap over Las Vegas even without Mahomes.
12 TEN @ JAX TEN +12.5 Jags are playing well but not well enough to cover 10+ points.
11 LAC @ DEN LAC +12.5 CSV context leans Broncos, but 10+ is too great of a margin to cover.
10 IND @ HOU IND +10.0 While Texans are better team, they won’t cover the market margin.
9 DAL @ NYG DAL -5.5 CSV trends show a clear overall efficiency gap versus the Giants. Let’s hope the Cowboys show up.
8 DET @ CHI CHI -2.5 Lions show very slim margin in the simulation and Bears are rolling.
7 MIA @ NE MIA +11.5 CSV notes pointing to New England’s defense but won’t be able to withstand a large margin.
6 WAS @ PHI PHI -7.5 With CSV adjustments backing the Eagles’ more consistent offense and disruptive pass rush.
5 BAL @ PIT BAL -3.5 Expect Ravens to roll but this is low confidence based on recent performance.
4 SEA @ SF SEA -1.5 49ers have stronger offense but SEA has a lot on the line in this game.
3 NO @ ATL ATL -3.0 Yardage and EPA sums tilt toward the Falcons in most game scripts.
2 CAR @ TB TB -2.5 Modest but consistent Bucs offensive edge over a negative-EPA Panthers unit.
1 GB @ MIN MIN -6.5 Minnesota’s offensive ceiling outpacing Green Bay in the CSV snapshots.
Underdog Pick of the Week
SEA @ SF — 49ers +1.5
If you are looking for an underdog with real teeth and not just a “hold your nose and hope” spot, the model lands on:
Underdog of the Week: SF +1.5 vs SEA
Why this one?
This will be a volatile game with a lot riding on the line for both teams.
CSV-adjusted numbers show better offensive efficiency and more reliable yardage production for San Francisco than Seattle.
Even if the game script tightens, SF getting points at home (or in their listed spot) with that kind of efficiency edge is exactly the kind of underdog the model is designed to surface.
This is not a “pray for variance” dog. It is a numbers-backed play where the underdog is performing like the better team when you dig into the drive-level EPA and yardage profiles.
Value 3-Leg Moneyline Parlay
While the rankings above are strictly ATS, the same model flags a few favorites whose win probabilities significantly exceed what the market implies. Translating that into a value moneyline parlay, here is the trio that stands out:
3-Leg Moneyline Parlay (Value-Based)
BUF over NYJ
Highest-confidence ATS play on the board at 16 points.
Massive EPA and yardage mismatch; the Bills dominate in both simulation and CSV-adjusted efficiency.
JAX over TEN
15-point confidence ATS with JAX -12.5.
Blowout potential is high, and the underlying metrics show Tennessee struggling to keep up offensively.
CIN over CLE
14-point confidence ATS for CIN -7.0.
Bengals own a clear offensive edge, and the Browns’ efficiency profile lags across both EPA and yardage.
This parlay leans into three teams the model already loves against the spread, which typically means their straight-up win probabilities are even stronger relative to price. You are essentially packaging the most stable favorites from the rankings into one correlated value play.