Week 15 NFL ATS Confidence Rankings
Data-Driven Picks from Simulation, Market Edges, and CSV Efficiency Trends
Week 15 brings one of the strongest top-heavy slates of the season. Across all 16 matchups, several games graded with enormous model edges and overwhelming cover probabilities, while others required deeper EPA and yardage context from the CSV adjustments to separate lean from value.
Below is the complete confidence table for all 16 ATS selections, ranked from strongest (16 points) to weakest (1 point).
ATS Confidence Rankings – Week 15
Confidence Game ATS Pick Notes
16 IND @ SEA SEA -13.5 About a 95% cover rate and a massive EPA/yardage advantage makes Seattle the week’s most reliable side.
15 NYJ @ JAX JAX -12.5 Roughly 94.5% cover probability; the Jets’ offense is severely outclassed in all CSV efficiency metrics.
14 TEN @ SF TEN +12.5 San Francisco dominates the model and the CSV notes, covering ~94.5% of simulations.
13 CLE @ CHI CHI -7.5 Chicago carries an 80.8% cover probability and clear EPA superiority in the CSV trends.
12 BUF @ NE NE +1.5 About 80.3% cover rate with a strong model edge and reinforced efficiency from the CSV snapshots.
11 LAC @ KC LAC +4.5 Roughly 74.7% cover probability with steadier efficiency and fewer negative spikes than Los Angeles.
10 GB @ DEN GB -2.5 Nearly three-quarters cover rate; CSV EPA and yardage reinforce the Packers’ week-to-week consistency.
9 ATL @ TB TB -4.5 67.5% cover probability and the more stable EPA profile elevate Tampa above Atlanta’s volatility.
8 ARI @ HOU HOU -10.0 61.5% cover rate with a meaningful model advantage backed by Houston’s superior offensive efficiency.
7 LV @ PHI LV +11.0 About 60.8% cover and a clean CSV profile showing the Eagles winning the trenches on both sides.
6 MIN @ DAL DAL -9.5 ~60% cover probability; Dallas displays sustained yardage and EPA dominance.
5 BAL @ CIN CIN +2.5 56.8% cover with Baltimore showing a modest but real spread edge and better EPA consistency.
4 WAS @ NYG WAS +2.5 53.8% cover probability and a small but clear CSV efficiency edge give Washington slight value.
3 DET @ LA DET +5.5 56.5% cover rate and enough CSV efficiency to make the points valuable against the Rams.
2 CAR @ NO CAR -2.5 55.8% cover probability; Panthers hold a slight but meaningful EPA advantage.
1 MIA @ PIT PIT -3.0 54.7% cover probability; Steelers have the sturdier CSV EPA trend in a grinder-type matchup.
Underdog Pick of the Week
Detroit Lions +5.5 at LA Rams
Detroit is the only underdog in the top half of the ratings, and they earned that placement on merit. While the raw sims show a modest edge, the CSV EPA and yardage context pulls Detroit upward, showing that their offensive floor and drive structure travel well. Anything above +4 is mathematically valuable, making +5.5 the strongest dog on the board this week.
Why it qualifies:
Positive model-based cover probability (~56.5%)
CSV data closes the gap even more, validating the play
Rams’ defensive EPA has spiky variance, which benefits the dog
Detroit is the only underdog this week that clears the thresholds for a premium value play.
3-Leg Moneyline Parlay (Value-Based)
These legs are selected not because they are favorites, but because they show elite win-probability + efficiency alignment, with minimal volatility flags in the CSV adjustments.
1. Seattle Seahawks ML (vs IND)
Highest overall model edge of the week
Win probability comfortably exceeds market expectation
2. Jacksonville Jaguars ML (vs NYJ)
Jets offense cannot match JAX efficiency; extremely high win and cover rates
One of the cleanest statistical mismatches on the slate
3. San Francisco 49ers ML (vs TEN)
Near-identical top-tier scores to Seattle and Jacksonville in both EPA and yardage dominance
Low variance opponent, high model consistency
This 3-leg ML parlay is constructed from the three strongest profile games on the slate, maximizing expected value while avoiding unnecessary risk.