Week 13 ATS Confidence Rankings

Powered by Data, Simulation Edges, and CSV-Adjusted Efficiency

Another NFL week, another deep dive into simulation outputs, market edges, and CSV-validated EPA/Yardage trends.
This week produced several monster mismatches—some obvious, some hidden beneath the surface—and a handful of underdogs who quietly profile far better than Vegas expects.

Below are my official ATS Confidence Rankings for Week 13, where the strongest pick gets the most confidence points and the lowest gets just one.
Every pick selects a side based on cover probability, model edge, and CSV efficiency, with zero hedging and zero passes.

Let’s get into it.

📊 Week 13 ATS Confidence Rankings (Top to Bottom)

Confidence Game ATS Pick Notes

16 SF @ CLE SF -5.5 San Francisco offense making moves while CLE struggles

15 LA @ CAR LA -10.5 The Rams playing at peak performance will carry them

14 CHI @ PHI CHI +7.0 Philadelphia struggling to maintain supremacy while CHI have luck on their side

13 LV @ LAC LAC -10.0 The Chargers hold strong offensive advantage and LV in locker room turmoil

12 BUF @ PIT BUF -3.5 Buffalo grades as a massive efficiency mismatch and PIT outclassed

11 MIN @ SEA SEA -10.5 Seattle looking to continue dominance while MIN picking up pieces

10 KC @ DAL DAL +3.5 Kansas City trending down while DAL trending up

9 GB @ DET DET -2.5 The Lions home field will help them push through in rivalry game

8 NYG @ NE NYG +7.0 New England slowing down offensively. Rivalry will keep this game close

7 JAX @ TEN JAX -6.5 Jacksonville picking up speed through the season. TEN still trying to make it work

6 ATL @ NYJ ATL -2.5 Atlanta offense is starting to move. Jets are flying low

5 ARI @ TB ARI +3.0 Tampa Bay carries injuries set them back. ARI will stay close

4 HOU @ IND IND -4.5 The Colts always have advantage over HOU at home. IND rolling

3 CIN @ BAL BAL -7.0 BAL needs a win at home. Burrow needing to get back in the swing of things

2 NO @ MIA MIA -6.0 Miami’s offense grades as the week’s cleanest mismatch, NO continues to struggle offensively

1 DEN @ WAS DEN -6.5 Denver has turned heads offensively and defensively. Low confidence as Daniels back for WAS

⭐ Underdog Pick of the Week

🐶 New York Giants +7.0 @ New England

Why this is the live dog:

• NE wins outright more often, but they don’t consistently win by margin

• The cover distribution favors NYG keeping it close in more than one-third of sims

• NE’s offense remains one of the least explosive units in football

• Giants’ EPA spikes give them real backdoor potential

• Model edge is smaller than most favorites, making it a natural underdog zone

This is the only matchup where:
• The favorite is shaky
• The underdog profile is better than the line indicates
• The game script produces a high % of one-score finishes

→ Underdog Pick of the Week: NYG +7

🔒 Value-Based 3-Leg Moneyline Parlay

To build the parlay, we use only teams with:

✔ High SU win probability
✔ Strong efficiency edge in CSV EPA
✔ Low chaos variance
✔ Manageable juice

3-Leg Value Parlay (Week 13)

1️⃣ SF ML (vs CLE)

• Wins in 75.7% of simulations, Massive EPA edge offensively, CLE offense cannot sustain drives, Safest leg on the board

2️⃣ KC ML (@ DAL)

• 67.7% win probability, Strong trench advantage, High third-down success stabilizes this leg

3️⃣ IND ML (vs HOU)

• 55.3% win probability, Higher floor, lower volatility, Houston offense overly dependent on explosives

💰 Estimated Parlay Outcome

With these probabilities combined, your implied parlay hit rate sits in the 29–31% range—excellent for a 3-leg ML parlay that still produces +EV return due to pricing inefficiencies.