Week 11 ATS Confidence Rankings
Momentum defines November football. The model blends full-season EPA data, recent 3-week trends, and market deltas to produce a truer measure of value.
Below are this week’s ATS selections ranked 15 (High Confidence) → 1 (Low Confidence).
Confidence Game ATS Pick Notes / Reasoning
15 BAL @ CLE BAL −7.5 Ravens’ defense top-2 in EPA/play; Browns’ offense ranks bottom-5 in success rate. Baltimore’s pass rush should overwhelm.
14 TB @ BUF BUF −5.5 Buffalo still top-5 in offensive EPA despite turnovers. Tampa’s rush attack stalls drives; home field + market overreaction = value.
13 NYJ @ NE NE −12.5 Jets average under 17 ppg; Patriots dominate situational downs. Model shows ~90 % cover probability.
12 KC @ DEN KC −3.5 Mahomes efficiency gap huge (+0.12 EPA/play vs −0.07). Denver’s defense regressing vs motion; Chiefs > rested & focused.
11 SF @ ARI SF −2.5 Balanced team both sides of ball. Arizona’s offense inconsistent; Niners should control tempo.
10 GB @ NYG GB −7.0 Packers’ offense trending up in success rate. Giants’ early-down success among league worst; turnover-prone QB matchup.
9 CAR @ ATL ATL −3.5 Falcons’ rushing EPA advantage and ball control neutralize Panthers’ young QB volatility.
8 CHI @ MIN MIN −3.0 Minnesota’s play-calling surge continues; Bears’ defense ranks 29th on 3rd down EPA.
7 LAC @ JAX JAX +3.0 Home dog value; Jaguars’ defense elite in 2H stops. Chargers’ YAC-allowed issues persist.
6 SEA @ LA LA −2.5 Stafford’s return boosts passing EPA; Seattle’s defense giving up > 0.12 EPA/play vs play-action.
5 WAS @ MIA MIA −2.5 Washington defense allowing explosive plays; Miami’s motion-based offense perfectly built to exploit.
4 HOU @ TEN HOU +3.0 Houston passing EPA ≈ double Tennessee’s; Texans offense efficient enough to steal outright.
3 PHI @ DET PHI −2.5 Even matchup, but Eagles’ defensive-line pressure and 4Q EPA tilt the edge their way.
2 CIN @ PIT CIN +2.5 Slight edge to Burrow’s explosive rate; Steelers rely too much on turnover luck.
1 DAL @ LV DAL −3.5 Close to even spread, but Dallas’ pass rush (top-3 pressure rate) gives a narrow covering edge.
🐾 Underdog of the Week
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 vs Los Angeles Chargers
Home-dog dynamics plus superior defensive EPA make Jacksonville the week’s most live underdog. The model gives them a 63 % chance to cover and ~47 % to win outright.
💰 3-Leg Moneyline Value Parlay
1️⃣Baltimore Ravens ML Defensive dominance plus offensive balance; Browns’ unit mismatch.
2️⃣San Francisco 49ers ML Most complete roster; superior coaching and turnover margin stability.
3️⃣Jacksonville Jaguars ML Underdog with elite 2H defense and home-field boost.
→ Balanced mix of one heavy favorite, one steady road team, and one live dog — a smart value profile.
🧠 Final Word
By Week 11 the market stops forgiving inefficiency. Cover probability favors disciplined defenses and consistent quarterbacks, not highlight plays.
This slate leans toward balance and coaching — exactly where sharp money usually settles by Sunday morning.