College Sports' Growing Divide—and How to Bridge It
College athletics was once defined by regional rivalries, underdog stories, and a sense that any program could rise to national prominence with the right mix of talent, grit, and coaching. Today, that balance is eroding. A small group of wealthy schools continues to surge ahead, while smaller programs struggle to remain relevant. The driving forces include massive media contracts, the transfer portal, and explosive NIL growth. These shifts reward the few at the expense of the many.
The Widening Gap
The divide between the haves and the have-nots has never been sharper:
Media deals: The Big Ten signed a set of new contracts with Fox, CBS, and NBC worth at least $7 billion over several years (Big Ten Conference). The Big 12 renewed with ESPN and Fox for $2.3 billion over six years (Big 12 Conference). By comparison, smaller conferences often bring in less than $10–20 million annually for all members combined.
The transfer portal: In Division I, 20,911 athletes entered the portal in 2022, up from 17,781 in 2021 (NCAA.org). In men’s basketball alone, transfers rose from 924 in 2020 to 1,385 in 2023.
NIL opportunities: The average NIL deal for college football players grew from $1,132 in August 2021 to $3,162 in August 2022, a 179% increase (The Boneyard). NIL collective spending overall surged 824% year-over-year in June 2025 (CBS Sports).
This combination creates a cycle: exposure leads to money, money leads to recruits, recruits lead to wins, and wins bring more exposure. Smaller schools are left behind in this loop.
Transfers and NIL: The Numbers Behind the Surge
The numbers tell the story. Transfer portal entries are climbing sharply year over year. At the same time, NIL spending has exploded, particularly during transfer windows.
Here’s a look at how NIL spending surged in 2025 compared to 2024, exactly when players were most active in the transfer market:
January: NIL spending was up 215% year-over-year.
April: NIL spending was up 182% year-over-year.
June: NIL spending skyrocketed 824% year-over-year.
(CBS Sports)
The alignment is not coincidence. Schools and donor collectives are pouring money into NIL right when athletes are deciding whether to stay, go, or transfer up to a bigger program. For large schools, this creates an arms race that they are equipped to win. For smaller schools, it means losing talent they have spent years developing.
Side-by-Side: NIL Growth vs Transfers
Here’s a direct comparison of NIL deal values and Division I transfer entries:
Year Avg NIL Deal (Football) D1 Transfer Entries % Change
2021 $1,132 (The Boneyard) 9,806 (The Front Online) Baseline
2022 $3,162 (↑179%) 20,911 (↑17% YoY from NCAA data) Surge
2023 N/A 13,025 (↑75% vs 2021, The Front Online) Continued volatility
Narrative Insight: As NIL values ballooned between 2021 and 2022, transfer entries jumped too. While not every transfer is tied directly to NIL money, the data strongly suggests a link. Athletes are increasingly moving toward schools with greater NIL visibility.
Why It Matters
At its best, college sports are defined by parity, pride, and possibility. Think of Boise State’s trick-play upset of Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, or Butler’s back-to-back Final Fours. These moments capture the spirit of college athletics: that on the right day, the underdog can shock the powerhouse.
But if the current system continues unchecked, those stories will vanish. Without mechanisms to balance NIL and media money, smaller schools risk becoming mere stepping stones, a place for athletes to shine briefly before transferring upward.
How to Keep Smaller Schools Competitive
This future is not inevitable. There are practical ways to keep the system competitive, vibrant, and fair:
1. Smarter Revenue Sharing
Adopt media-rights models where a baseline share of national TV money is distributed to all Division I programs. This will not erase the gap, but it can keep smaller schools solvent and competitive.
2. A National NIL Marketplace
A transparent clearinghouse could ensure every athlete has a fair shot at deals, connecting smaller-school players with regional businesses, alumni, and community sponsors who want to invest locally.
3. Protect Rivalries and Regional Identity
Requiring conferences to preserve regional matchups would reduce travel costs, maintain tradition, and protect fan engagement.
4. Guarantee Playoff Access
The expanded College Football Playoff must protect spots for the highest-ranked non–Power Five schools. Cinderella runs are not just fun, they are essential to the soul of college sports.
5. Embrace Digital Innovation
Smaller schools can invest in direct-to-fan streaming and social media engagement, building their own platforms when ESPN will not. Authentic, creative storytelling can carve out new audiences.
A Silver Lining
Not all is bleak. Athletes are finally able to profit from their talent, and that is long overdue. Streaming ensures fans have more access than ever before, even to niche matchups. The expanded playoff system at least offers smaller schools a theoretical chance to break through.
College sports are evolving quickly, but they can still honor the values that made them great. By combining reform with innovation, we can keep the stage big enough for both giants and underdogs.
Because at the end of the day, the true magic of college athletics is that David still has a chance to beat Goliath.